Photo 1. ASEAN Member States’ representatives participating in the AEO9 Workshop I on Scenario Development.
On 8–9 October 2025 in Jakarta, Indonesia, the ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) organised the 9th ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO9) Workshop I on Scenario Development, bringing together representatives from all ASEAN Member States and regional and international experts. The workshop was supported by the UK Mission to ASEAN through the ASEAN-UK Green Transition Fund (GTF). The workshop was set to be the first critical step in aligning the scenarios to be developed in the AEO9, ensuring the shared vision for energy security, decarbonisation, inclusivity and resilience across the region.
Photo 2. Dato’ Ir. Ts. Razib Dawood, Executive Director of the ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE), delivering his welcoming remarks.
The workshop commenced with welcoming remarks from Dato’ Ir. Ts. Razib Dawood, Executive Director of ACE, underlined that developing credible scenarios is essential to ensure regional energy cooperation remains data-driven and policy-relevant. He noted that ASEAN’s energy transition depends on sound analysis and strong coordination among AMS to achieve the goals of the ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC) 2026–2030, themed “Advancing Regional Cooperation to Ensure Energy Security and Accelerate Decarbonisation for a Just and Inclusive Energy Transition.”
Photo 3. Dan Jones, Climate, Energy and Nature Adviser of the UK Mission to ASEAN, delivering his welcoming remarks.
Complementing the regional perspective, Dan Jones, Climate, Energy and Nature Adviser of the UK Mission to ASEAN, delivered his remarks by highlighting Southeast Asia’s growing energy demand and the need for collaboration, innovation, and investment to achieve a just energy transition. He emphasised clean energy as a major economic opportunity, drawing on the UK’s experience with its 2050 net-zero targets and substantial investment in clean energy. He concluded by reaffirming the UK’s long-term partnership with ASEAN through the ASEAN-UK Green Transition Fund, which supports regional cooperation on energy security, decarbonisation, and sustainable growth.
Photo 4. Dr. Zulfikar Yurnaidi, Head of the Energy Modelling and Policy Planning (MPP) Department (left), and Tung Phuong, Senior Officer of the APAEC Secretariat (right), delivering their presentations.
After the remarks, the session started by scene-setting session on AEO9 plans and progress as well as the upcoming ASEAN energy blueprint post 2025. Dr. Zulfikar Yurnaidi, Head of the Energy Modelling and Policy Planning (MPP) Department, explained the objectives and structure of AEO9, emphasising that the scenarios are designed to connect national energy data and targets with regional projections. Tung Phuong, Senior Officer of the APAEC, shared that AEO9 will serve as a key reference to monitor the implementation of APAEC 2026–2030 and to support ASEAN’s long-term energy policies.
Photo 5. Muhammad Rizki Kresnawan of ACE moderating the session with Dr. Alloysius Joko Purwanto of ERIA, Dr. Peerapat Vithayarichareon of IEA and Dr. Chris Dunstan of CSIRO (from left to right).
The session then continued with a panel discussion to share about international perspectives in designing scenario in regional energy outlook. This panel discussion session was moderated by Muhammad Rizki Kresnawan, Senior Energy Modeller at the ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE)—featured three invited experts who presented best practices in energy scenario development from global and regional contexts, Dr. Chris Dunstan, Energy Strategy Leader from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) in Australia; Dr. Peerapat Vithayarichareon, Senior Energy Analyst from the International Energy Agency (IEA); and Dr. Alloysius Joko Purwanto, Energy Economist from the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
Dr. Chris Dunstan opened the session by emphasising the need to align AEO9 with the strategic priorities of ASEAN Member States, noting the region’s growing share in global energy demand. He outlined possible roles for AEO9—from a harmonised scenario platform to a policy reference—and shared lessons from Australia’s transition. Dr. Peerapat Vithayarichareon presented key regional trends from the Southeast Asia Energy Outlook, using scenarios and modelling frameworks drawn from the World Energy Outlook, including the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), and Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE), to highlight electrification, rising clean energy investment, and the need for modernised grids. Dr. Alloysius Joko Purwanto complemented this with ERIA’s Low-Carbon Energy Transition–Carbon Neutrality (LCET–CN) scenario, grounded in national data, efficiency gains, renewable expansion, and CCS. The session concluded with a common message: AEO9 must be ambitious, coordinated, and well-aligned to serve as a powerful tool for ASEAN’s energy future.
Photo 6. Professor Jeffrey D. Sachs, Director of the Centre for Sustainable Development at Columbia University, delivering his keynote presentation.
A keynote presentation was delivered by Professor Jeffrey D. Sachs, Director of the Centre for Sustainable Development at Columbia University. Prof. Sachs urged ASEAN to pursue bold, long-term energy scenarios that position the region to become a competitive and sustainable hub in the global green economy. He highlighted ASEAN’s strategic opportunity to lead in zero-carbon technologies—such as solar, hydro, nuclear, EVs, and batteries—supported by deeper regional integration and power interconnection. In this context, he pointed to opportunities for deeper energy integration not only within ASEAN but also with other regions such as Australia, China, Japan, and Korea. While noting the limitations of biofuels as a long-term solution, he stressed that ambitious scenario planning in AEO9 is essential to unlock ASEAN’s global competitiveness in the clean energy economy.
In the discussion, he then emphasised that regional cooperation through the ASEAN Power Grid will enhance energy security and reduce costs. He acknowledged nuclear as a possible future option and stressed the importance of transitioning extractive industries toward sustainability through reforestation and technological innovation. Ultimately, he argued that ASEAN’s success depends not only on energy transformation but also on investment in education, science, and R&D to drive long-term economic leadership.
Photo 7. Representatives from various ACE departments presenting updates on regional initiatives to align AEO9 with ASEAN’s broader energy planning directions.
To ensure AEO9 fully reflects ASEAN’s evolving energy vision, several ACE departments provided updates on ongoing regional initiatives to ensure that AEO9 reflects the wider direction of ASEAN’s energy planning. Dr. Tharinya Supasa from the Sustainable and Renewable Energy Department outlined ASEAN’s RE Long-Term Roadmap, emphasising emerging scenarios designed to bridge carbon neutrality gaps. She underscored the rapid rise of solar and vRE dominance by 2030 and the need for stronger regional coordination efforts despite ongoing emission growth.
From the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Department, Irma Ramadan discussed ASEAN’s energy efficiency strategy, targeting top-consuming sectors—industry, transport, buildings, and appliances—through harmonised standards, roadmaps, and sector-specific benchmarks to curb rising emissions, while Suwanto from the Fossil, Hydrocarbon and Mineral Department presented an overview of recent policy developments and regional initiatives related to fossil fuels in ASEAN. His presentation covered updates on coal policy, methane abatement efforts, oil and gas security cooperation, as well as progress in carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiatives under the broader framework of APAEC 2026–2030.
Muhammad Rizki Kresnawan representing on behalf of Power and Interconnection Department highlighted ASEAN’s Integrated Resource and Resilient Planning (IRRP) framework for the power sector. He explained the shift from conventional supply adequacy planning towards a more integrated approach that incorporates resilience as a key component. This inclusion reflects the growing need to address emerging challenges such as climate-induced disruptions, grid stability, and evolving demand patterns. Adding a social perspective, Indira Pradnyaswari, Research Analyst at ACE, presented “A Guide to a Just and Inclusive Energy Transition in ASEAN,” highlighting the importance of integrating Gender Equality, Disability, and Social Inclusion (GEDSI) principles across all aspects of the AEO9 process.
Towards the end of the day one, the discussion continues by having presentation from Muhammad Rizki Kresnawan on the introduction and preliminary scenario to AEO9 modelling framework. He highlighted AEO9’s core principles—collaboration, harmonisation, and validation—and outlined the key elements of scenario design, including policy ambition, narrative assumptions, uncertainty testing, and data integration.
The session then moved to a more technical overview by Muhammad Ilham Rizaldi and Lazuwardi Imani, Energy Modellers from the Modelling and Policy Planning Department, who clarified the structure of the energy supply and demand modules. They noted planned improvements such as a stronger bottom-up approach and the inclusion of new elements like data centre power demand, optimisation in energy-intensive industries, and emerging technology pathways. During the Q&A, participants raised questions on carbon pricing mechanisms, energy efficiency targets, transport subsidies, and potential collaboration with external partners.
Photo 8. Muhammad Ilham Rizaldi (left) and Lazuwardi Imani (right), Energy Modeller from MPP Department, delivering their presentations
The second day concentrated on scenario development and collecting inputs directly from AMS. The day was started by having each country presented updates on their national energy policies, targets, and technology priorities, ensuring that the assumptions used in AEO9 reflect real national contexts. These presentations also allowed the ACE team to identify opportunities for regional alignment and coordination.
Photo 10. Representatives from each AMS presenting their national energy outlooks and policies.
Participants then joined breakout group discussions facilitated by ACE research analysts. The discussions were designed to refine four key scenario pathways: a Baseline Scenario that projects current trends without new policy measures; an AMS Target Scenario that reflects the impact of official national energy and climate policies; a Regional Aspiration Scenario that considers accelerated measures to achieve regional targets; and discussion on fourth scenario that envisions a more ambitious pathway to support ASEAN’s long-term vision. This scenario emphasises deeper regional integration and transformative action toward net-zero emissions, exploring how ASEAN could build a highly interconnected, low-carbon, and competitive energy system by mid-century.
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Photo 11. Participants engaging in breakout group discussions facilitated by ACE analysts to refine the four key AEO9 scenario pathways.
Through this process, AMS shared valuable insights to refine the scenarios, including key concerns and analytical suggestions such as incorporating optimisation in the power sector, reassess policy measures and consider emerging topics such as the impact of digital infrastructure and the ASEAN Power Grid. Participants also proposed areas for deeper analysis in AEO9, including life cycle assessment, macroeconomic impacts, and employment effects.
Photo 12. Dr. Zulfikar Yurnaidi delivering the closing remarks during the plenary session.
At the end of the group work, the results were presented in a plenary session, where facilitators summarised the key points into a scenario matrix that outlines the initial framework to guide the next stages of modelling and scenario validation. In his closing remarks, Dr. Zulfikar Yurnaidi thanked the AMS delegates and experts for their active engagement and highlighted that this workshop has built a strong foundation for the technical work ahead. He reaffirmed that the AEO9 process is not just an analytical exercise, but a collaborative effort that represents the shared aspirations of the ASEAN region.
The workshop concluded with a strong commitment among ASEAN Member States to continue this joint effort in developing AEO9. The outcomes of the meeting will guide the upcoming phase of modelling and analysis, ensuring that ASEAN’s energy transition remains inclusive, evidence-based, and aligned with the region’s shared vision for a sustainable future.
