Insights from ASEAN-wide emissions trading schemes (ETSs): A general equilibrium assessment

Abstract

ASEAN has not yet had any joint policy to constrain emission levels in the context of global efforts to tackle climate change and studies on such issues in the region are still scarce. This study employs a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) climate change policy-focused and electricity-detailed model to examine the impacts of emissions trading schemes (ETSs) on the ASEAN member economies. We found that Indonesia (a permit buyer) experiences much lower economic costs in the regional ETS scenarios rather than in its closed ETS market (−9% compared to −16% in real GDP). Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam act as permit sellers and experience higher economic costs in the regional ETS scenarios. It is because the balance on the current account, which is equal to the sum of the ordinary trade balance and net emissions trading revenue, is assumed to be fixed. Furthermore, the change in ratio of trade balance to regional income is also fixed. Such a setting indicates that if the net permit trading revenue is used to fully compensate for the trade balance, which is also maintained along with the changes in the regional income, permit selling countries will be worse off and vice versa if they move from their domestic ETS markets into a regional ETS market. Results also show that technological improvements can help reduce economic costs of the ETSs. In addition, renewable energy sources show strong expansions in their production levels, but they are still far from becoming dominant in ASEAN in order to significantly reduce economic costs of climate change policies. Households will also increase their demand for renewable energy in all ASEAN countries while lowering demand for fossil-based energy; however, this sector will still experience reductions in the overall electricity demand due to previous strong reliance on fossil-based energy.