COP Adoption, Implications and Projections of Climate Change Mitigation Policy for ASEAN Region

(a) National University of Sciences and Technology

(b) University of Waterloo Faculty of Environment

(c) Universiti Teknologi Malaysia – Main Campus Skudai: Universiti Teknologi Malaysia

(d) University of Waterloo Faculty of Environment
Climate Change is a critical concern for Southeast Asia as this region is extremely vulnerable to the extreme weather patterns, temperature fluctuations and uneven precipitation expected under climate change, and thus vulnerability is expected to increase in the future. With this background, this study aims to analyze the readiness of ASEAN member countries to undertake the promised determinants of INDCs by the Paris Agreement and transfer these into measurable actions, and also to explore how ASEAN nations may reduce climatic threats over time. Consequently, a long run RICE (Regional Integrated Climate and Economy) based dynamic nonlinear numerical model for the economy and environment was utilised. Simulation forecasts investigated several alternatives in order to determine optimal climate strategies against global-warming in the region, using both an Optimal Scenario (OS) and Business-asusual (BAU) projections from 2020 to 2060. The results indicate that under an optimal scenario, industrial emissions are estimated in monetary values, RM14.05 (US$1=RM4.30)(btCO2 per year) in 2040 and RM31.99 (btCO2 per year) by 2060. These estimated values under OS are striking for sustainable development since they are far lower than BAU projections. Carbon price (RM per tCO2) by OS indicates that the carbon tax could be RM224.65 in 2040, RM258.16 in 2050 and RM245.41 in 2060 per tCO2. The collected carbon tax can be reinvested by ASEAN nations in order to implement alternative backstop technologies and technological innovation. The optimal scenario outcomes examined for carbon emission reduction are tempting since they can support a strong balance between sustainable development and quality environment. Despite long-run economic assumptions, the findings are still a worthy means by which ASEAN governments can compare climate change mitigation strategies while also making amendments for any unexpected developments.

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