Moving Towards a Net-Zero Emissions Economy: The Case of Indonesia

1) National University of Singapore (NUS) – Energy Studies Institute
2) National University of Singapore (NUS)
3) National University of Singapore (NUS) – Department of Industrial & Systems Engineering
Indonesia is the largest emitter in Southeast Asia, which heavily relies on fossil fuels. Given the country’s prospect of socio-economic development, if such an energy consumption mix remains unchanged, this suggests a future that is not sustainable. To deal with climate change, Indonesia has identified various energy targets and has a vision of achieving net-zero emissions by 2060. In this paper, we present a LEAP model of Indonesia’s energy system, to investigate possible energy profiles and trajectories of emissions that meet the country’s climate ambition. To do so, we develop four scenarios, i.e. Business-as-Usual (BAU), current policies scenario (CPS), renewable enhancement (REE) scenario and net-zero emissions (NZE) scenario. The results show that Indonesia’s final energy consumption would increase by 375% by 2060 from the level of 2018, while its economy-wide target of net-zero emissions is achievable. The key strategies are energy transition towards renewables, electrification, energy efficiency improvement and Carbon Capture and Storage. All mitigation measures can reduce Indonesia’s final energy consumption by 33% in 2060.