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The Launch of 7th ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO7) 2020-2050

15 September 2022

Phnom Penh, Cambodia, 15 Sep 2022

The ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) launched the 7th edition of the ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO7) at the 40th ASEAN Ministers on Energy Meeting (AMEM). This outlook serves as a complementary document for the ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC) by creating four different pathways up to 2050 to achieve the set targets. 

AEO7 marks the first ASEAN energy outlook, where ASEAN takes full leadership in data gathering, modelling, writing, and dissemination. It was developed by ACE in collaboration with national experts from ASEAN Member States (AMS) and guided by the ASEAN Regional Energy Policy and Planning Sub-sector Network (REPP-SSN). Support was provided by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH through the ASEAN-German Energy Programme (AGEP), Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) of Japan, and ASEAN Climate Change and Energy Project (ACCEPT).

ACE has achieved a huge milestone by performing up to 100% modelling works of AEO7 in-house, cementing ACE’s status as an ASEAN energy think tank and further embodying the spirit ‘from ASEAN, by ASEAN, to ASEAN’. In our attempt to answer the global energy dynamics and explore technology innovation scripted in the APAEC Phase II, AEO7 introduced the Least-Cost Optimisation (LCO) Scenario, which projects a more realistic future reflecting all potentially viable technologies in emerging economies like ASEAN. We believe AEO7 could pave the opportunity for more collaborative partnerships to advance ASEAN’s energy security and resiliency.” said Dr Nuki Agya Utama, Executive Director of ACE.

The report finds:  

  • ASEAN will continue its energy demand growth, around 3 times of 2020 level by 2050. Fossil fuels remain the largest component of the energy system. Without significant effort, the region could become a net importer of gas by 2025 and net importer of coal by 2039. A secure and resilient energy transition is key. 
  • ASEAN’s current efforts will showcase tremendous efforts by outperforming the renewables share in installed capacity target by 2.9% in 2025. Conversely, renewables in the total energy supply will be short by 5.5% and energy intensity reduction by 2.8%. 
  • The LCO Scenario sheds light on a cost-effective alternate future, post-2025, where the electricity generation system could cost USD174.7 billion less than the regional target scenario from 2021-2050—to secure the region it considers the ASEAN power grid and battery and energy storage systems. 
  • Strong renewable deployment in the regional policies scenarios would generate emissions at 4.3 tCO2e/capita (25% less than baseline), 5.5 million jobs by 2050, and 8.8 million ha of land required for biofuel. 

The study explores several thematic chapters related to assessing measures for energy resilience, which include exploring technologies for grid integration, utilising fossil fuels during the transition, improving industrial efficiency, enhancing dispatchability of renewable energy, financing energy transition, and managing the safety and social acceptance of nuclear power.

We would like to offer our sincerest congratulations to ACE for launching its flagship publication, the AEO7. We believe that a just and sustainable energy transition is important in driving economic development in the covid recovery period in the region. Germany, as one of ASEAN’s long-standing development partners, is delighted to become one of the strongest allies in advocating the region’s energy transition. We believe that the AEO7 will become one the main key references for policymakers and all stakeholders in ensuring secure, accessible, affordable, and sustainable energy in the region.” said Mr Stefan Messerer, German Ambassador to Cambodia. 

As key reference for energy cooperation in the region, AEO7 paves the opportunity for more collaborative partnerships to advance the ASEAN energy sector in navigating energy transition that is secure, resilient, and just. 

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