The 8th ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO8) team from ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) conducted the first of country visit series on the 8th ASEAN Energy Outlook to Myanmar on 18 January 2024. Supported by the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) of Japan and the Energy Foundation China (EFC), the visit was held virtually with the attendance of Regional Policy and Planning-Sub Sector Network (REPP-SSN) and AEO8 Myanmar Working Group Members to share and consult the AEO8 modelling results, verify data coherence, and gather input for the next ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC) cycle Post 2025. Later on, the forthcoming AEO8 is expected to be presented and launched at the 42nd ASEAN Ministers on Energy Meeting (AMEM-42) in Lao PDR in September 2024.
Photo 1. Opening Remarks by Dr. Nuki Agya Utama, Executive Director of ACE
The meeting commenced with the opening remarks from Wint Thiri Swe, REPP-SSN Focal Points and Director of Oil and Gas Planning Department, Ministry of Energy of Myanmar. Swe acknowledges the importance of the ASEAN Energy Outlook and how AEO8 is one of the primary resources for energy discourse in the ASEAN region. Swe expressed hope for ASEAN Member States (AMS) to progress in sustainable and renewable energy, enhanced energy storage, accessibility, and further development of ASEAN energy systems. Following this, Dr. Nuki Agya Utama, Executive Director of ACE, addressed welcoming remarks, emphasising the crucial role of AEO as a cornerstone in ASEAN’s energy discourse to achieve global energy targets. Dr. Nuki also introduced a new scenario in the AEO8, namely the “Carbon Neutrality Scenario”, which focuses on emission reduction in order to accelerate a net-zero future.
Photo 2. Presentation by Muhammad Shidiq, Senior Analyst Officer of MPP
The first session of the dissemination was dedicated to the introduction of the AEO8 progress and its future direction by Rika Safrina, Senior Officer of the Energy Modelling and Policy Planning (MPP) Department. Rika outlined AEO8’s milestones since the Kick-Off Meeting and AEO8 Workshop I in 2023, along with ACE’s agenda for country visits and workshops throughout the year. An introduction on LEAP Model and Scenario was shortly introduced by Muhammad Shidiq, Senior Analyst Officer of MPP, elaborated on the utilisation of LEAP for creating comprehensive analysis on the energy sector, shortly followed by discussion for a deeper understanding on the LEAP model and scenario for Myanmar. This was followed by a discussion to deepen understanding of the LEAP model and scenario for Myanmar, including considerations for data utilisation.
The session also featured a presentation by Dr. Ambiyah Abdullah, Senior Officer of MPP, on the topic of energy financing and investment in the ASEAN region. Dr. Ambiyah underscored the importance of input and suggestions for AEO8, particularly concerning the energy situation in Myanmar. In response, Swe Swe Than, Deputy Director of the Oil and Gas Planning Department from the Ministry of Energy of Myanmar, highlighted the necessity of developing renewable energy (RE) in Myanmar to increase the country’s electrification rate. The session concluded with a lively discussion on potential contributions to enhance the upcoming AEO8 for Myanmar’s energy objectives.
Photo 3. Discussion led by Dynta Trishana Munardy, Officer of APAEC
In this cordial setting, the session advanced with a comprehensive discussion on socioeconomics, policy, energy demand, supply, and transformation data, led by Rika Safrina, Senior Officer of MPP, and Silvira Ayu Rosalia, Energy Statistician and Data Visualisation Officer of MPP. The discourse centres on the validation of Myanmar’s energy data across various sectors, a topic that will be further detailed in the upcoming AEO8 report.
Michael Petalio, Energy Modeller of MPP, presented initial findings on the baseline and AMS Target Scenario, aligning the substance of AEO8 with Myanmar’s energy sector needs. Notably, Michael highlighted the dominant capacity of hydropower in Myanmar compared to other energy sources and the importance of solar development to support sustainable energy in Myanmar, emphasising its significance in the outlook.
The final presentation was delivered by Dynta Trishana Munardy, Officer of APAEC, along with Michael Petalio, and discussed the preliminary development plan for the upcoming APAEC, scheduled for launch in 2025. Dynta emphasised the importance of understanding AMS expectations for the next APAEC and regional energy cooperation. Additionally, Swe stressed that prioritising the development of biogas, wind turbines, and hydropower plants is crucial for advancing Myanmar’s energy sector.
The session concluded with Dr. Zulfikar Yurnaidi, MPP Manager of ACE, extending his gratitude to Myanmar for their active engagement in the discussion. Dr. Zulfikar expressed optimism about ongoing collaboration, urging Myanmar to continue to enhance collaboration in the development of AEO8. He underscored the significance of optimising efforts in Myanmar, particularly in exploring the Carbon Neutrality Scenario (CNS) within AEO8 and maximising the utilisation of hydropower resources. Furthermore, Dr. Zulfikar also encourages Myanmar to participate in the next Workshop II for a more in-depth discussion on AEO8.