Photo 1. Participants of the AEO8 Technical Meeting between the ASEAN Member States (AMS) Representatives and AEO8 Team

Following the capacity building session on the three previous days (28-30 May 2024), the ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE), supported by the Australian Government through the Partnerships for Infrastructure (P4I) initiative, hosted the 8^th ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO8) Technical Meeting with AEO8 ASEAN Member States (AMS) Working Group on 31 May 2024 in Jakarta, Indonesia. AEO8 is an ACE flagship report set to be launched during the 42^nd ASEAN Ministers of Energy Meeting (AMEM) in Vientiane, Lao PDR, on September 2024. The meeting was held on the last day out of four days of events and was attended internally between ACE and AEO8 AMS Working Group. The meeting focused on updating AMS on AEO8 development, the technicalities of AEO8 results finalisation for each scenario, and clarifying on how complementary AMS data was obtained, processed, and interpreted in the AEO modelling.   

AEO8, as the flagship publication of ACE, supports the implementation of the ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC), offering a comprehensive overview of the current energy landscape and exploring pathways to achieve regional and national energy goals.  

The meeting started with an overview of AEO8 progress and updates by Rika Safrina, Senior Analyst of the Energy Modelling and Policy Planning (MPP) Department at ACE, and approaches used in the AEO8 works. Rika presented the general progress of AEO8, introducing the scenarios that will be established, current challenges, and initial result for the AEO8. Amira Bilqis, Analyst of MPP at ACE, presented the initial findings on AEO8 Baseline Scenario (BAS), emphasising findings based on historical patterns as a reference point for the other scenarios. 

Photo 2. Presentation by Amira Bilqis, Research Analyst of ACE (left); Discussion with AMS (right) 

Silvira Ayu Rosalia, Energy Statistician and Data Visualisation Officer of MPP at ACE, presented the AEO8 initial results in the AMS Target Scenario (ATS) approach, with detailed assumptions and parameters, as well as on the demand and supply sides. Following that, Dr Ambiyah Abdullah, Senior Analyst of MPP at ACE, presented the AEO8 results in the Regional Aspiration Scenario (RAS), using a collective approach and a higher ambition for energy efficiency and renewable energy beyond 2025. Indira Pradnyaswari, Associate Research Analyst of MPP at ACE, presented the AEO8 initial results on the Carbon Neutrality Scenario (CNS), with its detailed assumptions and findings on the demand and supply sides. Each scenario result comparison was presented by Michael Petalio, Energy Modeller of MPP at ACE, comparing the Baseline, ATS, RAS, and CNS together to discuss further with AMS.

The discussion between ACE and AMS resulted in a positive response, as AMS provided insightful feedbacks regarding the AEO8 modelling results. These comments will be incorporated by ACE’s team to further refine the model, ensuring it delivers more comprehensive and accurate results tailored to the specific needs and conditions of each country.  

Photo 3. Meeting summary and way forward by Dr Zulfikar Yurnaidi, Head of MPP at ACE 

To conclude the workshop, Dr Zulfikar Yurnaidi, Head of MPP Department at ACE, summarises the meetings and addresses the way forward in the development of AEO8, extending his gratitude towards the participants for their active involvement throughout the four-day workshops, and emphasising the optimisation of the whole model based on AMS inputs after this meeting. Dr Zulfikar also stated that ACE will continue to consult with the AMS Working Group to finalise the results further. 

The upcoming agenda for AEO8 includes another workshop to be held during the 23^rd REPP-SSN Meeting and Its Associated Meetings in Singapore. This workshop will further showcase and finalise the key highlights and interpretations of the AEO8 modeling results to the REPP-SSN Focal Points. Additionally, the AEO8 will be officially launched at the 42^nd ASEAN Ministers of Energy Meeting (AMEM) in Lao PDR in September 2024. The AEO8 will serve as a guidance for the AMS on providing the current ASEAN energy landscape and outlining several pathways to achieve long-term regional and national energy targets. Stay tuned to our website and social media for updates on AEO8.