Thursday, 15 Sep 2016

High economic growth in ASEAN has prompted ASEAN Member States (AMS) to increase their energy consumption in many sectors, such as industry, transportation, residential and commercial. To fulfil all of those demands, AMS should increase their energy production and supply. As per today’s data, most of their energy supply comes from fossil fuels which emit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. On the other hand, AMS has commenced implementing their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) set during the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s 21^st Conference of Parties (COP 21) in Paris, 2015. Under this framework, both energy production and electricity generation in AMS should be aligned to their INDC targets by reducing fossil fuel use in electricity generation and energy supply. Also, AMS has set their renewable energy (RE) targets as compiled in ASEAN Centre for Energy’s (ACE) latest publication, the ASEAN Renewable Energy Policies, August 2016 ¹.

In that publication, each Member State determined their target year and target number, and which RE type will be dominantly installed as their targets. To measure how far the AMS have achieved their respective targets, a simple methodology is used here, by comparing their latest installed capacities (2014) to their own targets. The results of the analysis are presented in Table 1.

Table 1. RE Target and RE Installed on Power Sector in ASEAN 

(* special RE targets, for Cambodia is for hydropower only, for Indonesia is excluding biomass, for Lao PDR is excluding large hydropower and for Brunei Darussalam and Singapore are only for solar photovoltaic (PV), for Myanmar cannot be calculated in this study because the RE target is only for small hydro by 2016 and no data installed small hydro

(** in GWh

Each AMS has set their target year and target number based on their capabilities and their needs. It does not mean that Indonesia with the highest RE target has the most developed RE among the AMS. It only indicates a high demand due to its large population.  The measure of their RE target achievement should be shown in the percentage of their RE installed capacity against their RE target. Brunei Darussalam and Singapore set no more than 1.67 GWh (0.18% of total target) and 33.1 MW (9.45% of total target) targets for solar PV installation respectively. To reach their targets, Singapore should install 316.9 MWp in 2015-2020 and Brunei Darussalam should generate about 952 GWh in 2015-2025. In 2014, Cambodia has reached 42.5% of its target to develop 2,241 MW of hydropower by 2020. Until that year, Cambodia should install 1.29 GW of hydropower to reach its target. Indonesia, the largest archipelago in ASEAN, has targeted about 46.3 GW of RE in their energy mix. In 2015, Indonesia has reached 16.33% (without biomass included) of their RE targets. Until 2025,  Indonesia should install nearly 40 GW (including biomass) from multifarious RE technologies to meet its target.

Lao PDR, the country whose almost 100% of electricity is generated from large hydropower, has determined their RE target by excluding that particular electricity source. Lao PDR has set RE target for 2025 and reached 4.5% of its target by 2014. Out of the total 21.37 GW RE target, Malaysia has set 18,700 MW for solar PV by 2050. By 2014, Malaysia reached 29.42% of its total RE target. To reach the remaining target, they should install 15.1 GW of new RE installation in 2015-2050. Myanmar set biofuel and small hydropower targets 10% and 15% respectively from their total national RE targets. The Philippines and Vietnam are targeting 15,236 MW and 45,800 MW of RE installation by 2030. Until 2013, the Philippines has installed 38.71% and Vietnam has installed 37.42% of their respective RE targets. Thailand should have an additional installed capacity of about 11.7 GW until 2036 to reach their RE target (19,684 MW). Until 2014, Thailand reached 40.14% of its target.

Hydropower will be the most preferred RE technology for the next 15 years, followed by solar energy in some Member States, such as Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. Hydropower will be developed more in Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, the Philippines and Vietnam. These RE technologies preferences provide a good indicator for the private sector at the regional and global levels to invest in ASEAN RE.

Photo credit:  Andreas Gücklhorn

References

1.  ASEAN Centre for Energy. (2016). ASEAN Renewable Energy Policies. Jakarta.
2. Cerezo, M. (2016). 23rd Annual Meeting RE-SSN of ASEAN Energy Cooperation Country Profile of Philippines. Presentation.

The views, opinions, and information expressed in this article were compiled from sources believed to be reliable for information and sharing purposes only, and are solely those of the writer/s. They do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of the ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) and/or the ASEAN Member States. Any use of this article’s content should be by ACE’s permission.