Following the first 8^th ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO8) workshop in Bogor, Indonesia, last November, the ASEAN Center for Energy (ACE) is visiting ten ASEAN Member States (AMS) to share and consult on the initial modelling results from January until March 2024. During these visits, ACE invites energy officials and relevant stakeholders from AMS to gain additional input and check for the modelling, such as detailed data, assumptions, and initial findings. On 29 February 2024, ACE conducted the AEO8 Country Visit to the Philippines, the fifth event following the visits to Myanmar, Indonesia, Brunei Darussalam, and Malaysia. 

The opening remark was given by William G. Quinto,​ Assistant Director of the Energy Policy and Planning Bureau​, Department of Energy​ of the Philippines. He remarked that collaboration and planning is a key component to providing an idea of the progress of energy targets in the Philippines. ACE and the Philippines share the common goal of regional cooperation and the importance of accurate and empirical work in projections. 

As with all country visits, the first presentation is about the current progress of AEO8, given by Rika Safrina, Senior Analyst of the Energy Modelling and Policy Planning (MPP) at ACE. The presentation showed the current energy targets used in AEO8 and an overview of the four scenarios used. Specifically, AEO8 introduces a new scenario, the Carbon Neutrality Scenario (CNS).   

The next session is a discussion about the next cycle of the ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC), led by Amira Bilqis, Analyst of MPP at ACE. As the current cycle is due to end in 2025, this year’s country visit was a chance for ACE to receive input about regional targets and aspirations from AMS. Some input for the Philippines included the energy priorities that the government has set, potential energy sources or technologies and the expectations of regional energy cooperation.

The following session is a presentation about LEAP, the modelling software used for AEO8, given by Michael Petalio, Energy Modeller at ACE. This demonstration gave participants insight into how the data was used to create the projections in AEO8, as well as the software’s ability, requirements, and limitations.  

Ending the morning session of the country visit, a presentation about energy financing was given by Rika Safrina. This presentation focuses on the needs, trends and challenges of energy investment in ASEAN. The discussion was a chance to identify the current energy investment situation in the Philippines and to receive and share best practices for energy investment. While there is interest in clean energy generation investment, one concern is the current limited transmission infrastructure in ASEAN. Another input is the role of natural gas as a transition fuel in ASEAN, as a cleaner fossil fuel source while renewable energy capacity is being built up.  

The afternoon session focused on the data and initial findings of the modelling. The first presentation was a data discussion, given by Rika Safrina. The data discussion gave an overview of the data used for AEO8, data provided from Malaysia and external sources used for data unavailable from the Malaysian representatives. This session also offered time for officials to approve the external sources used and prediction for missing data from the LEAP software. ACE also inquired about the policies and targets it had currently, and if there were any new updates that could be used for AEO8.  

The next session was a presentation about the initial findings of the Baseline Scenario and the AMS Target Scenario (ATS), given by Michael Petalio. The presentation discusses the assumptions, scenarios and methodology in more detail. The projections of expected energy demand and supply were shown for officials to review and address any concerns. A cost and emission comparison between the two scenarios was also given. The country visit was to confirm and receive input from the Philippines to ensure the initial results were satisfactory.  

The meeting then ended with the last discussion about the two other scenarios: the Regional Approach Scenario (RAS) and the Carbon Neutrality Scenario (CNS), which was also led by Michael Petalio. These inputs would serve as a specification for these two scenarios. The session also allowed government officials to address any concerns with the technologies that would be implemented, specifically if the Philippines has the potential for these technologies.  

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AEO8 development is supported by several partners, including Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) Japan, the Norwegian Government through ASEAN Climate Change and Energy Project (ACCEPT) Phase II, the USAID through Smart Power Programme, Australian Government through Partnerships for Infrastructure (P4I), Energy Foundation China, and many technical partners.​